You’ve most likely used the traditional distribution one or two instances too many. All of us have — It’s a real workhorse. However generally, we run into issues. As an example, when predicting or forecasting values, simulating knowledge given a selected knowledge producing course of, or after we attempt to visualise mannequin output and clarify them intuitively to non-technical stakeholders. All of a sudden, issues don’t make a lot sense: can a consumer actually have made -8 clicks on the banner? And even, 4.3 clicks? Each are examples of how rely knowledge doesn’t behave.
I’ve discovered that higher encapsulating the information producing course of into my modelling has been key to having smart mannequin output. Utilizing the Poisson distribution when it was applicable has not solely helped me convey extra significant insights to stakeholders, but it surely has additionally enabled me to supply extra correct error estimates, higher inference, and sound decision-making.
On this put up, my intention is that can assist you get a deep intuitive really feel for the Poisson distribution by strolling by instance functions, and taking a dive into the foundations — the maths. I hope you study not simply the way it works, but in addition why it really works, and when to use the…
