Santa Rosa, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, and Windsor
Vernon H. Budinger, CFA
Sonoma’s inhabitants is rising once more, and many of the development is within the city areas. This report evaluates the inhabitants development of Sonoma County’s 4 largest cities relative to state and nationwide averages. This paper attracts from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Inhabitants Desk and contextualizes it inside the broader Sonoma County demographic knowledge from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Fast Details.
The inhabitants development brings a surge tsunami of modifications to the demographic composition in Sonoma’s cities. Not like a wave tsunami, a surge tsunami arrives comparatively slowly and seems as a rising tide. Earlier than 2022, the demographics have been shifting because the older inhabitants was reducing as a consequence of deaths exceeding births and residents transferring out of Sonoma County. Within the final 12 months, Sonoma’s inhabitants elevated due to Worldwide Migration. See the embedded hyperlink under for a Evaluate of Sonoma’s Inhabitants Change.
Census Bureau Estimates Indicate Sonoma Population Grew in 2024
Now that the inhabitants has began rising and the demographic tide has began rising sooner, the incoming surge of foreign-born, non-white residents will substitute the growing old, rural, white, male demographic that dominates the county right this moment. This has implications for society, housing, healthcare, and infrastructure.
The U.S. Census Bureau launched its 2024 Classic Inhabitants Report for inhabitants development in the USA on Could fifteenth, 2025. Of the 1,935 U.S. cities with populations higher than 20,000 in 2020, 82% skilled inhabitants development. The typical inhabitants development was 1.2%, the biggest proportion improve within the final 4 years.
Three of the 4 largest cities in Sonoma adopted this pattern; solely Windsor’s inhabitants declined over the previous 12 months.
The uptrend began in 2023 for Santa Rosa, Petaluma, and Rohnert Park. This reversed a four-year pattern of inhabitants decline for Santa Rosa and Petaluma.
Santa Rosa: Ranked 151st nationally with a 2024 inhabitants of 177,524 — the inhabitants elevated in 2024, however remains to be decrease than 2020
Santa Rosa is Sonoma County’s most populous metropolis with 36.6% of the county’s inhabitants. Like Sonoma County, Santa Rosa’s inhabitants elevated from 2023 to 2024, suggesting that it additionally benefited from worldwide migration. Nevertheless, even with two years of development, the inhabitants remains to be under the 2020 depend.
The town’s demographic profile differs from the County’s in key areas. Solely 56.2% of the town’s residents are White Alone versus 85.5% for the county. Santa Rosa is youthful on common than Sonoma County, with 20.5% of residents beneath 18 and solely 18.6% over 65 (18.7% beneath 18 and 22.3% over 65 for Sonoma County). Furthermore, Santa Rosa reigns supremely because the financial hub of Sonoma with 3,980 of the 11,956 employer companies within the county. Forty-five p.c of the county’s retail gross sales are situated in Santa Rosa.
Santa Rosa residents are comparatively poor relative to Sonoma County and the 4 different cities highlighted on this article. The Median Family Earnings is $97,410 for Santa Rosa and $102,840 for the county. Per Capita Earnings tells the identical story: solely $50,520 for the town versus $54,941 for the county. Not surprisingly, it additionally ranks low on the training spectrum, with solely 34.8% of the town’s inhabitants holding a bachelor’s diploma.
Petaluma: Ranked 681st nationally with a 2024 inhabitants of 59,393 — the inhabitants elevated in 2024, however remains to be decrease than 2020
The Census Bureau stories that Petaluma’s inhabitants elevated in 2023 and 2024, however (as with Santa Rosa) the inhabitants remains to be decrease than the 59,799 recorded in 2020. This long-term downward pattern aligned with the county’s pre-2024 decline part and displays related pressures, together with housing affordability and restricted financial diversification past tourism and agriculture. Petaluma’s smaller dimension and extra suburban character might amplify the impression of home out-migration, as residents search extra inexpensive or city environments elsewhere.
Petaluma’s demographic profile mirrors Sonoma County’s in some key areas: most importantly, 21.3% of the inhabitants is older than 65. That is barely lower than the County (22.3%) and the best focus of aged residents in comparison with the opposite three main cities. As well as, it has a excessive proportion of White-Alone relative to the opposite cities, and a small proportion Black-Alone (1.4% vs 2.2%, which ties it with Windsor).
Petaluma has the bottom American Indian-Alaska Native inhabitants (0.9%) and the second lowest Asian Inhabitants (4.2%). It has the best per capita revenue of the 4 cities ($59,036), and the second highest Median Households Earnings ($109,823 — second solely to Windsor with $129,004).
Rohnert Park: Ranked 681st nationally with a 2024 inhabitants of 44,894 — Constant Progress since 2020.
Rohnert Park noticed its inhabitants develop from 44,437 in 2023. It was the one main metropolis in Sonoma County to expertise a rise in inhabitants over the previous 4 years, rising from 44,403 to 44,894. The rise might replicate the truth that Rohnert Park is a commuter hub and is residence to Sonoma State College.
The expansion might also replicate financial alternatives. Rohnert Park gives the bottom housing costs of the 4 cities. As well as, Rohnert Park appears to have benefited from the worldwide migration driving Sonoma’s rebound in 2024. It’s demographically the youngest of the 4 cities, with 20.8% of the inhabitants beneath 18 and solely 13.7% of the inhabitants over 65. Rohnert Park is essentially the most diversified metropolis in Sonoma County: solely 52% of the inhabitants is White Alone Not Hispanic versus 59.1% for the County. Residents who’re descendants of Two or Extra Races make up 19.1% of the inhabitants, and the 6.3% Asian inhabitants is second solely to Santa Rosa. The Hispanic or Latino inhabitants includes 32.7% of Rohnert Park’s inhabitants.
Nevertheless, Rohnert Park can be the poorest metropolis of the 4, with 10.2% residing in poverty. Its Median Family Earnings of $96,635 and Per Capita Earnings of $45,603 are the bottom. Median Gross Hire in Rohnert Park is $2,211 monthly (the bottom), however incomes are so low that lease represents 27.5% of Per Capita Earnings — the best (most unaffordable) of the 4 cities. Solely 6.6% of the Employer Corporations are in Rohnert Park, and whereas Complete Retail Gross sales per Capita are $21,686 — increased than the common for the County ($19,139) — it’s nonetheless far under the $23,631 spent in neighboring Santa Rosa.
Windsor: Ranked 1,550th nationally with a 2024 inhabitants of 25,486 — Modest Decline for 2024 — Constant Declines since 2020.
Windsor stands out as the one Sonoma metropolis among the many high 4 to expertise inhabitants decline in 2024. That is shocking as a result of Windsor is essentially the most affluent group in a number of respects: it has the highest Median Family Earnings ($129,004), the second highest Per Capita Earnings ($54,425), the fewest residents residing in poverty (4.7%), and lease is the bottom in proportion of Median Family Earnings (19.4%). Like Rohnert Park, Windsor has a comparatively younger inhabitants and is extra according to the state than Sonoma County and the opposite three cities.
Evaluation: Implications and Broader Developments
Sonoma County’s 2024 inhabitants improve marks a big shift within the pattern after years of inhabitants decline. The Classic 2024 city-level knowledge reveal uneven progress — 84% of the county inhabitants improve of two,039 got here from these cities. Santa Rosa alone accounted for 53% of Sonoma’s inhabitants improve.
The divergent demographics amongst Santa Rosa, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, and Windsor spotlight the complexity of Sonoma County’s restoration. The 4 city facilities are very completely different in demographic and financial composition.
The typical age for the residents of the 4 cities differs dramatically, the median age in Petaluma is 43.9 years whereas Rohnert Park ranks because the youngest cities in Sonoma County with a median age of 37 years.
The racial and ethnic background of the 4 cities varies considerably. Solely Petaluma comes near Sonoma County’s whole proportion of White Alone as a part of the inhabitants. This means that many within the White Alone group reside in rural areas.
Earnings ranges additionally diverge; Windsor is the clear winner for Median Family revenue. Nevertheless, Petaluma residents have the best Per Capita Earnings.
The share of Folks in Poverty presents the opposite aspect of the revenue equation. Surprisingly, Sonoma County and all 4 cities are under the state-wide poverty stage of 12%.
The following graphic reveals the Complete Shopper Expenditures per Family by Census Tract. Discover the uneven distribution. The census tracts fluctuate between darkish blue (over $180,000 a 12 months) and lightweight inexperienced ($71,000 a 12 months). Discover how the darkish blue and lightweight inexperienced census tracts usually sit subsequent to one another.
Conclusion: We aren’t in Kansas anymore
The county’s 2024 inhabitants improve, pushed by worldwide migration, is accelerating the diversification of the inhabitants, with a rising Latino presence (30.3% county-wide) and potential shifts away from its predominantly White, growing old demographic.
The expansion isn’t evenly distributed, city and suburban facilities like Santa Rosa and Rohnert Park driving the demographic tsunami and main modifications to society and infrastructure. These embrace restricted inexpensive housing choices, elevated demand for well being care, and different financial components that will drive home out-migration (older residents to depart).
The second issue driving modifications is the nationwide demographic pattern driving nationwide inhabitants tendencies. The U.S. Census Bureau tasks that the Non-Hispanic White Solely section will fall at the very least 5% by 2050 whereas the Non-White inhabitants will improve dramatically — the Two or Extra Races part will improve by 25% by 2030 and 16% by 2030.
Demographic evaluation underscores Sonoma County’s present distinct id in comparison with California and units the stage for the surge tsunami change as Sonoma County migrates towards California’s profile: fewer older, White-Solely (85.5% Sonoma vs. 70.4% state), extra younger, non-white residents.
The dominant pattern is the decline of the White inhabitants and the older age distribution (22.3% over 65 vs. 16.2%). The nationwide demographic pattern will additional intensify the modifications that can come up organically in Sonoma County.
These tendencies underscore the necessity for focused methods to retain residents, appeal to various populations, and construct new infrastructure for the younger and the growing old. As worldwide migration drives Sonoma County’s diversification, native insurance policies addressing housing, financial alternatives, and social companies will likely be vital to making sure that cities like Santa Rosa, Petaluma, and Rohnert Park share within the county’s demographic restoration. The interaction of growing old demographics, migration patterns, and financial pressures will dramatically alter Sonoma’s city panorama within the coming years.
Whereas Sonoma County is conscious of those tendencies and is taking motion, the tendencies spotlight the accelerating tempo of change. Profitable companies might want to consider micro markets to grasp their clients at a micro-regional stage. Social media and promoting campaigns that cowl your entire area received’t successfully attain the purchasers nor handle the wants of the inhabitants in comparison with campaigns that concentrate on the wants of micro-regions.
Vernon H. Budinger
Neural Revenue Engines
445 Middle Road
Suite 226
Healdsburg, CA 95448
www.neuralprofitengines.com
vernon@neuralprofitengines.com
707 513 0880
