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Bayes’ Theorem is likely one of the most generally used and celebrated ideas in statistics. It units the idea of a likelihood concept that permits us to revise predictions or hypotheses based mostly on new proof.
In a earlier article on probability notation, I launched P(B∣A)— the likelihood of occasion B occurring provided that occasion A has already occurred.
Bayes’ Theorem flips this angle, specializing in P(A∣B): the probability of A, provided that B has occurred. In essence, it helps us refine our understanding of outcomes by incorporating prior info (recognized information).
In apply, even when your preliminary assumptions or estimates aren’t good, the method of making use of the Bayes’ theorem encourages extra considerate and knowledgeable guesses for the longer term!
To start with, let’s take a look at an instance impressed by the famous work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky.
